Terence Mills introduces us to Keynsian probability and discusses its implications for teaching probability. The author considers it unlikely that Keynes's theory would replace how we teach probability, but argues that it may make us think more deeply about the use of terms such as chance and probability when used in our lessons.

In adaptive learning systems, various models are employed to obtain the optimal learning schedule and review for a specific learner. Models of learning are used to estimate the learner's current recall probability by incorporating features or predictors proposed by psychological theory or empirically relevant to learners' performance. Logistic…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

Conspiracy theories as alternative explanations for events and states of affairs enjoy widespread popularity. We test one possible explanation for why people are prone to conspiratorial thinking: We hypothesize that conspiratorial thinking as an explanation for events increases as the probability of those events decreases. In order to test this…

In a signal detection theory (SDT) approach to multiple choice exams, examinees are viewed as choosing, for each item, the alternative that is perceived as being the most plausible, with perceived plausibility depending in part on whether or not an item is known. The SDT model is a process model and provides measures of item difficulty, item…

This paper explores the use of irony in narratives that focus on the problem of knowing what we do not know. Sometimes issues arise on a grand scale, as in the literature of Socrates, Pascal, and Descartes, where the question really is whether we can know anything at all or whether all that we can know is that there is nothing worth knowing that…

The Maxwell distribution of speeds, f(v), is the starting point for the calculation of the transport coefficients in kinetic-molecular theory. Most physical chemistry textbooks follow a path to derive f(v) similar to that used by Maxwell, which makes it difficult for students to understand its relationship with the equilibrium state of the system,…

This paper deals with a brief history of probability theory and its applications to Jacob Bernoulli's famous law of large numbers and theory of errors in observations or measurements. Included are the major contributions of Jacob Bernoulli and Laplace. It is written to pay the tricentennial tribute to Jacob Bernoulli, since the year 2013…

This paper discusses investigations in science education addressing the nonlinear dynamical hypothesis. Learning science is a suitable field for applying interdisciplinary research and predominately for testing psychological theories. It was demonstrated that in this area the paradigm of complexity and nonlinear dynamics have offered theoretical…

The concept of "weak measurements" in quantum physics is a way of "cheating" the Uncertainty Principle. Heisenberg stated (and 85 years of experiments have demonstrated) that it is impossible to know both the position and momentum of a particle with arbitrary precision. More precise measurements of one decrease the precision…

Conditionals somehow express conditional beliefs. However, conditional belief is a bi-propositional attitude that is generally not truth-evaluable, in contrast to unconditional belief. Therefore, this article opts for an expressivistic semantics for conditionals, grounds this semantics in the arguably most adequate account of conditional belief,…

With so many role-playing simulations already in the political science education literature, the recent repeated calls for new games is both timely and appropriate. This article answers and extends those calls by advocating the creation of probabilistic games using Microsoft Excel. I introduce the example of the Stag Hunt Game--a short, effective,…

The presented research was conducted in order to investigate the connections between developmental dyslexia and the functioning of verbatim and gist memory traces--assumed in the fuzzy-trace theory. The participants were 71 high school students (33 with dyslexia and 38 without learning difficulties). The modified procedure and multinomial model of…

One of the major debates concerning the nature of inferential reasoning is between counterexample-based theories such as mental model theory and probabilistic theories. This study looks at conclusion updating after the addition of statistical information to examine the hypothesis that deductive reasoning cannot be explained by probabilistic…