This study employs the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) survey methodology to estimate unemployment in the Youngstown/Warren Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) in June 1984. When the resulting estimates are compared with those obtained using the BLS's local survey methodology, it is found that the BLS estimates significantly understate…

This document contains five working papers featuring employment projections for five segments of industry in Ohio. The purpose of the studies described in the papers is to evaluate projections generated by the quantitative models used in the projections process and to elicit insights and qualitative information from industry practitioners that are…

This manual was designed to help educators collect both general and specific information regarding labor market conditions within their community. Such information can be used to design employment training programs that will serve the needs of local employers as well as provide more information regarding employment opportunities for students…

The working paper concentrates on the general objective, "How do the agency (Federal) and its policy makers utilize the information conveyed by scientific manpower forecasts?" Section 1 examines reasons for the growth in demand for these forecasts: (1) benefit cost analysis of public projects with long payout periods must rely on forecasts; (2)…

To determine the dominant ecosystem types in nonmetropolitan counties and the role of ecological factors in determination of levels of total and age-specific migration patterns within nonmetropolitan areas and ecosystem types for 1950-60 and 1960-70, 30 ecological variables representing POET concepts of population, organization, environment, and…

Projections of the number of jobs in 1970 and 1975, by occupation and industry, for New York State and its 11 major industrial areas are being developed through techniques described in this publication. The five major steps are: (1) to establish the number in the labor force by age and sex, (2) to establish the number of nonfarm and salary jobs by…

A study was conducted to address the question of what impact the expansion of employment and training programs for youth (such as the Youth Employment Demonstration Projects Act of 1977) is likely to have on employment and unemployment of young people. The method used in the analysis was to specify a model (similar to the Markov model) of the…

This document is a continuation of CE 028 077 and uses the same statistical model (Markov Processes) with slight variations on the technique to carry out a simulation of the impact of the expansion in youth employment programs which occurred in fiscal 1978. Department of Labor 1977 figures for the total number of job/training positions funded by…

This paper develops an approach to estimating the effect of government employment and training programs on measured unemployment. The theoretical aspects of the method draws heavily on earlier work on labor market flow equilibrium (see note). Previous estimates of the direct or statistical impact of government programs on the unemployment rate…

This report examines the logic that underlies projection methods and applies that logic to data describing vocational teacher needs for 1978 through 1982. (The report addresses the demand for vocational education teachers only, not for other personnel such as counselors, prevocational teachers, and so on.) The report is organized into three…

Projecting demand for vocational education teachers for a 5-year period has many methodological problems. For example, how does one define the "need for additional personnel" or determine the difference in demand for and supply of teachers? The demand figure changes drastically depending on how it is measured, while the supply changes…

This final report summarizes Phase II of the study of employment demand data for agriculture/agribusiness in New York State. Analysis, procedures, findings, recommendations, and products of the study are reported. During Phase II, the final eight months of the study, the data collection was completed; procedures were implemented for conducting…