The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in…

Studies of the psychology of hindsight have shown that reporting the outcome of a historical event increases the perceived likelihood of that outcome. Three experiments show that similar hindsight effects occur when people evaluate the predictability of scientific results. Implications for the evaluation of scientific research by lay observers are…

There are many tasks in which people are called on to disregard information that they have already processed. Dealing with inadmissible evidence in a courtroom setting, second-guessing the past, etc. This research investigates such difficulties in a general form, using almanac-type questions. (Editor/RK)