The transition to university is an exciting yet challenging period for many students. While previous research has documented the association between stress and adjustment, little is known about the long-term effect of students' early stress on their subsequent university adjustment. The present study sought to examine the effectiveness of a short, 4-item stress measure in predicting student adjustment to university following a 6- and 18-month delay. Participants were 122 first-year, undergraduate students (M[subscript age] = 18.36, SD = 0.89; 73.9% women) who reported their stress during their first semester (baseline), and university adjustment six months (T1) and 18 months later (T2). Baseline stress significantly predicted future adjustment to university at both timepoints, explaining 21% (T1) and 14% (T2) of the variance in adjustment. Results reinforce the importance of identifying early signs of stress during the transition to university given its enduring effect on students' adjustment. Findings are discussed within the context of approaches to student support.