Investigated between-group differences in cognitive/affective theory of mind (ToM) and predictors of cognitive ToM both within broad autism phenotype/non (BAP/Non-BAP) groups as well as across the sample. The BAP group (n = 45) performed worse than the Non-BAP group (n = 102) on the unexpected outcomes test (UOT), but groups were similar regarding reading the mind in the eyes test (RMET). Stepwise regression indicated RMET best predicted UOT for the BAP group; block design best predicted UOT in the Non-BAP group. BAP traits did not mediate the relation of RMET to UOT performance. While RMET and UOT appear similarly related in BAP/Non-BAP samples, use of emotion recognition abilities in a cognitive ToM task may reflect over-reliance on this skill in the BAP.