ERIC Number: EJ1443999
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2024
Pages: 26
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1536-6367
EISSN: EISSN-1536-6359
Available Date: N/A
Explainable Machine Learning for Credit Risk Management When Features Are Dependent
Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, v22 n4 p315-340 2024
Complex Machine Learning (ML) models used to support decision-making in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending often lack clear, accurate, and interpretable explanations. While the game-theoretic concept of Shapley values and its computationally efficient variant Kernel SHAP may be employed for this aim, similarly to other existing methods, the latter makes the assumption that the features are independent. The assumption of uncorrelated features in credit risk management is fairly restrictive and, thus, prediction explanations coming from correlated features might result in highly misleading Shapley values, even when considering simple models. We therefore propose an evaluation of different dependent-feature estimation methods of Kernel SHAP for classification purposes in credit risk management. We show that dependent-feature estimation of Shapley values can improve the understanding of true prediction explanations, their robustness and is essential for better identifying the most relevant variables to default predictions coming from black-box ML models.
Descriptors: Artificial Intelligence, Risk Management, Credit (Finance), Prediction, Models, Evaluation Methods, Robustness (Statistics)
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
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Author Affiliations: N/A