This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

Recent handbooks of giftedness or expertise propose a plethora of conceptions on the development of excellent performance but, to our knowledge, there are no comparative studies that provide empirical evidence of their validity to guide researchers and practitioners in their adoption of a particular conception. This study sought to close that gap…

Effective talent-identification procedures minimize the proportion of students whose subsequent performance indicates that they were mistakenly included in or excluded from the program. Classification errors occur when students who were predicted to excel subsequently do not excel or when students who were not predicted to excel do. Using a…

A longitudinal evaluation of the utility of a screening battery administered in kindergarten is shown to retain a high utility for predicting current achievement outcomes of the sample at the end of grade six. The use of discriminant functional analysis and statistical decision theory is discussed. (Author/CM)

A longitudinal study of various measures of creativity was conducted to determine the validity of a number of possible predictors of an arts orientation. Tests of creative thinking, creative personality, divergent thinking, intelligence, and school achievement were administered to above-average fifth-graders (N=23), who also drew pictures based on…