ERIC Number: EJ1346177
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2022-Sep
Pages: 21
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0018-1560
EISSN: EISSN-1573-174X
Predicting First-Time-in-College Students' Degree Completion Outcomes
Demeter, Elise; Dorodchi, Mohsen; Al-Hossami, Erfan; Benedict, Aileen; Slattery Walker, Lisa; Smail, John
Higher Education: The International Journal of Higher Education Research, v84 n3 p589-609 Sep 2022
About one-third of college students drop out before finishing their degree. The majority of those remaining will take longer than 4 years to complete their degree at "4-year" institutions. This problem emphasizes the need to identify students who may benefit from support to encourage timely graduation. Here we empirically develop machine learning algorithms, specifically Random Forest, to accurately predict if and when first-time-in-college undergraduates will graduate based on admissions, academic, and financial aid records two to six semesters after matriculation. Credit hours earned, college and high school grade point averages, estimated family (financial) contribution, and enrollment and grades in required gateway courses within a student's major were all important predictors of graduation outcome. We predicted students' graduation outcomes with an overall accuracy of 79%. Applying the machine learning algorithms to currently enrolled students allowed identification of those who could benefit from added support. Identified students included many who may be missed by established university protocols, such as students with high financial need who are making adequate but not strong degree progress.
Descriptors: Undergraduate Students, Prediction, Graduation Rate, Time to Degree, Outcomes of Education, Student Characteristics
Springer. Available from: Springer Nature. One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, NY 10004. Tel: 800-777-4643; Tel: 212-460-1500; Fax: 212-460-1700; e-mail: customerservice@springernature.com; Web site: https://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2123/
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A