The relevance of the research problem is inspired by the strategic importance of dairy farming to the national economy, which is especially evident in the context of the EU economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and carrying out the import substitution policy. First and foremost, this policy applies to food commodities, including milk. The goal of the article is to study statistical productivity analysis of dairy cattle breeding as one of the major indicators to show its effectiveness (Privolzhsky Federal district in Russia is taken as the example). The main methods, used to study this problem are the index method, time series analysis, and correlation and regression analysis. As the study result there were identified the factors affecting the dairy cattle productivity, the prognosis and the conclusion about the positive aspects in solving problems of import substitution in the field of milk production. The article can be useful to regional governments in the development and adjustment programs for socio-economic development of subjects dealing with agriculture in the Volga Federal district of Russia.