Studies of the psychology of hindsight have shown that reporting the outcome of a historical event increases the perceived likelihood of that outcome. Three experiments show that similar hindsight effects occur when people evaluate the predictability of scientific results. Implications for the evaluation of scientific research by lay observers are…

How often are people wrong when they are certain that they know the answer to a question? The studies reported here suggest that the answer is "too often". The psychological bases for unwarranted certainty are discussed in terms of the inferential processes whereby knowledge is constructed from perceptions and memories. (Editor/RK)

There are many tasks in which people are called on to disregard information that they have already processed. Dealing with inadmissible evidence in a courtroom setting, second-guessing the past, etc. This research investigates such difficulties in a general form, using almanac-type questions. (Editor/RK)