This article reports on a classroom teaching experiment that engaged a group of high school students in designing sampling simulations within a computer microworld. The simulation-design activities aimed to foster students' abilities to conceive of contextual situations as stochastic experiments, and to engage them with the logic of hypothesis…

The authors describe how the Monty Hall Dilemma, a well-known choice anomaly, can be demonstrated with a simple and versatile classroom experiment. In addition to demonstrating the anomaly, the experiment can be used to introduce students to some institutional modifications that have been shown to ameliorate it. This experiment, which can be…

Theories of relational concept acquisition (e.g., schema induction) based on structured intersection discovery predict that relational concepts with a probabilistic (i.e., family resemblance) structure ought to be extremely difficult to learn. We report four experiments testing this prediction by investigating conditions hypothesized to facilitate…

This article summarizes a conceptual framework and simple mathematical methods of estimating the probability that one event was a necessary cause of another, as interpreted by lawmakers. We show that the fusion of observational and experimental data can yield informative bounds that, under certain circumstances, meet legal criteria of causation.…

While the influence of presentation formats have been widely studied in Bayesian reasoning tasks, we present the first systematic investigation of how presentation formats influence information search decisions. Four experiments were conducted across different probabilistic environments, where subjects (N = 2,858) chose between 2 possible search…

The majority of adolescent risk taking occurs in the presence of peers, and recent research suggests that the presence of peers may alter how the potential rewards and costs of a decision are valuated or perceived. The current study further explores this notion by investigating how peer observation affects adolescent risk taking when the…

Questions regarding the generalizability of results from educational experiments have been at the forefront of methods development over the past five years. This work has focused on methods for estimating the effect of an intervention in a well-defined inference population (e.g., Tipton, 2013; O'Muircheartaigh and Hedges, 2014); methods for…

Online learning from video modeling examples, in which a human model demonstrates and explains how to perform a learning task, is an effective instructional method that is increasingly used nowadays. However, model characteristics such as gender tend to differ across videos, and the model-observer similarity hypothesis suggests that such…

Randomized experiments are commonly used to evaluate if particular interventions improve student achievement. While these experiments can establish that a treatment actually "causes" changes, typically the participants are not randomly selected from a well-defined population and therefore the results do not readily generalize. Three…

The objective of this paper is to discuss aspects of high school students' learning of probability in a context where they are supported by the statistical software R. We report on the application of a teaching experiment, constructed using the perspective of Gal's probabilistic literacy and Papert's constructionism. The results show improvement…

This article will describe two activities in which students conduct experiments with random numbers so they can see that having at least one repeated birthday in a group of 40 is not unusual. The first empirical approach was conducted by author Cauto in a secondary school methods course. The second empirical approach was used by author Flores with…

Several German states recently introduced tuition fees for university education. We investigate whether these tuition fees influence the mobility of university applicants. Based on administrative data of applicants for medical schools in Germany, we estimate the effect of tuition fees on the probability of applying for a university in the home…

Current cognitive multimedia design theories provide several guidelines on how to integrate verbal and pictorial information. However, the recommendations for the design of auditory texts (narrations) are still fragmentary, especially with regard to the characteristics of the voices used. In the current paper, a fundamental question is addressed,…

Rolling dice and tossing coins can still be used to teach probability even if students know (or think they know) what happens in these experiments. This article considers many simple variations of these experiments which are interesting, potentially enjoyable and challenging. Using these variations can cause students (and teachers) to think again…

Two experiments explored whether children's correct answers to counter factual and future hypothetical questions were based on an understanding of possibilities. Children played a game in which a toy mouse could run down either 1 of 2 slides. Children found it difficult to mark physically both possible outcomes, compared to reporting a single…