Student debt levels were already pronounced before the pandemic hit, with $91.1 billion in annual federal student lending in 2019-20, up from $20.7 billion in 1990-91. Over that same period, per-student borrowing rose from $2,110 to $6,276, after adjusting for inflation. Evidence available as of Nov. 20, 2021, suggests that the COVID-19 downturn could have a very different impact on federal student borrowing, with some trends--such as declining enrollment, which may reduce the total number of borrowers--potentially reducing overall debt levels. According to the latest data from the College Board, total annual borrowing from the federal government fell by $7 billion, or 8%, between the 2020 and 2021 school years, while per-student borrowing fell by $324, or 5%, over the same time frame. But other patterns that the COVID-19 economic crisis and recovery share with past downturns, such as elevated levels of financial hardship, could mean increased borrowing needs for certain students. As of March 2021, almost one-fifth of all federal borrowers were in default on their loans, suggesting that repayment challenges are widespread. Changes in reliance on debt to finance higher education could foreshadow shifts in the extent of future repayment difficulties in certain situations, such as if borrowing is rising or falling at institutions with a track record of poor repayment outcomes. This brief examines three key factors--enrollment numbers, college prices, and families' ability to pay those prices--that could influence borrowing levels in a weak economy to help explain recent trends in borrowing and assess what COVID-19 and its aftermath might ultimately mean for federal student debt.