ERIC Number: ED596652
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2016-Apr-12
Pages: 37
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-
EISSN: N/A
Predicting Graduation Rates at Four-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach
Crisp, Gloria; Reyes, Nicole Alia Salis; Doran, Erin
AERA Online Paper Repository, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (Washington, DC, Apr 8-12, 2016)
This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates. A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable selection in modeling graduation rates. Evidence suggests that graduation rates can be predicted by religious affiliation, proportion of students enrolled full-time, socioeconomic status of the student body, enrollment size and to a lesser extent, institutional revenue and spending. Findings also demonstrate that a limited, and somewhat different group of variables serve to support or hinder institutional graduation rates for Latina/o and African American students. We conclude with implications for policy and key recommendations for research focused on 4-year BAIs.
Descriptors: Graduation Rate, Open Enrollment, Colleges, College Students, Bayesian Statistics, Statistical Analysis, Institutional Characteristics, Student Characteristics, Educational Finance, Hispanic American Students, African American Students, Predictor Variables
AERA Online Paper Repository. Available from: American Educational Research Association. 1430 K Street NW Suite 1200, Washington, DC 20005. Tel: 202-238-3200; Fax: 202-238-3250; e-mail: subscriptions@aera.net; Web site: http://www.aera.net
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A