This article presents a series of three experiments investigating the processing of nested epistemic expressions, utterances containing two epistemic modals in one clause, such as "he 'certainly may' have forgotten." While some linguists claim that in a nested epistemic expression one modal is semantically embedded within the scope of…

[This paper is part of the Focused Collection on Astronomy Education Research.] This paper presents the first item response theory (IRT) analysis of the national data set on introductory, general education, college-level astronomy teaching using the Light and Spectroscopy Concept Inventory (LSCI). We used the difference between students' pre- and…

With so many role-playing simulations already in the political science education literature, the recent repeated calls for new games is both timely and appropriate. This article answers and extends those calls by advocating the creation of probabilistic games using Microsoft Excel. I introduce the example of the Stag Hunt Game--a short, effective,…

One of the major debates concerning the nature of inferential reasoning is between counterexample-based theories such as mental model theory and probabilistic theories. This study looks at conclusion updating after the addition of statistical information to examine the hypothesis that deductive reasoning cannot be explained by probabilistic…

This study tested a theory of planned behavior (TPB)-based model in predicting human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination intentions and series completion among university students. A nonexperimental, cross-sectional design was utilized with a convenience sample of 281 university students, including 40.9% nonvaccinees, 19.6% vaccine initiators, and…

Students of all ages face severe conceptual difficulties regarding key aspects of evolution-- the central, unifying, and overarching theme in biology. Aspects strongly related to abstract "threshold" concepts like randomness and probability appear to pose particular difficulties. A further problem is the lack of an appropriate instrument…

A study in a university clinic/laboratory investigated adaptive Bayesian scaling as a supplement to interpretation of scores on the Mini-IPIP. A "probability of belonging" in categories of low, medium, or high on each of the Big Five traits was calculated after each item response and continued until all items had been used or until a…

Test-retest studies for assessing stability and change are widely used in different domains and allow improved or additional individual estimates of interest to be obtained. However, if these estimates are to be validly interpreted the responses given at Time-2 must be free of retest effects, and the fulfilment of this assumption must be…

The authors propose and test a causal model theory of reasoning about conditional arguments with causal content. According to the theory, the acceptability of modus ponens (MP) and affirming the consequent (AC) reflect the conditional likelihood of causes and effects based on a probabilistic causal model of the scenario being judged. Acceptability…

We investigated how people interpret conditionals and how stable their interpretation is over a long series of trials. Participants were shown the colored patterns on each side of a 6-sided die and were asked how sure they were that a conditional holds of the side landing upward when the die is randomly thrown. Participants were presented with 71…

Organizational and applied sciences have long struggled with improving causal inference in quasi-experiments. We introduce organizational researchers to propensity scoring, a statistical technique that has become popular in other applied sciences as a means for improving internal validity. Propensity scoring statistically models how individuals in…

The purpose of this study was to explore college students' recognition of temporal magnitudes associated with durations of scientific changes through construct validation of a 30-item instrument. We administered the instrument to 514 students from 10 higher education institutions in the United States. Among them, 419 students took the instrument…

This research investigated whether people are more likely to attribute events to external agents when events are negative rather than neutral or positive. Participants more often believed that ultimatum game partners were humans rather than computers when the partners offered unusually unfavorable divisions than unusually favorable divisions…

This study was to apply the mixed Rasch model to investigate person heterogeneity of Beck Depression Inventory-II-Chinese version (BDI-II-C) and its effects on dimensionality and construct validity. Person heterogeneity was reflected by two latent classes that differ qualitatively. Additionally, person heterogeneity adversely affected the…

Three experiments investigated the effects of two hints derived from the Criterion for Satisfactory Progress theory (CSP) and Representational Change Theory (RCT) on the cheap necklace problem (insight problem). In Experiment 1, fewer participants given the CSP hint used an incorrect (maximizing) first move than participants given the RCT hint or…