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Direct linkFernbach, Philip M.; Darlow, Adam; Sloman, Steven A. – Cognition, 2011
An indispensable principle of rational thought is that positive evidence should increase belief. In this paper, we demonstrate that people routinely violate this principle when predicting an outcome from a weak cause. In Experiment 1 participants given weak positive evidence judged outcomes of public policy initiatives to be less likely than…
Descriptors: Evidence, Grammar, Public Policy, Experiments
