Enrollment declines during the next 15 years in the college-age group, especially in the country's northeastern quadrant, are discussed. In the northeastern region, enrollment declines are likely to be twice the national rate. A model, designed to reflect what is likely to happen, is provided. (MLW)

A management of decline approach is contrasted with a model based on strategic planning and contingency budgeting for higher education. The strategic planning model is seen as a broader, more effective approach based on an assessment of what outcomes could be if enrollment strategies were effective in attracting students. (MLW)