The focus of this presidential address is on the contemporary treatment of reliability and validity in educational assessment. Highlights on reliability are provided under the classical true-score model using tools from latent trait modeling to clarify important assumptions and procedures for reliability estimation. In addition to reliability,…

Building on Shulruf, Hattie and Tumen (2008), this work examines the capacity of various National Certificate in Educational Achievement (NCEA)-derived models to predict first-year performance in Biological Sciences at a New Zealand university. We compared three models: (1) the "best-80" indicator as used by several New Zealand…

Using meta analysis, examined the predictive validity of scores on the MacAndrew Alcoholism Scale (C. MacAndrew, 1965). Compared results for 161 studies with results for 63 studies using cut scores. Discusses why the use of continuous measures rather than cut scores is recommended. (SLD)

Examined the construct validity of scores on the Psychological Empowerment Scale of G. Spreitzer (1995). Confirmatory factor analysis of data from 160 nurses supported Spreitzer's four empowerment dimensions, and these findings were cross-validated with a subset from the same sample. Results also support the predictive validity of the scale.…

The common approach to studies of predictive bias is analyzed within the context of a conceptual model in which predictors and criterion measures are viewed as fallible indicators of idealized qualifications. (Author/PN)

The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The basic assumptions and formulas for its use are outlined. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and the potential effect on prediction results is illustrated.…

Using a national sample of recent medical school graduates (n=12,213), a study of predictive validity of the National Board of Medical Examiners test parts I and II found strong correlations between performance on those parts and part III, supporting the test's use, at least in part, for selection of residency applicants. (MSE)

Assesses the validity of a 20-item scale that purportedly measures long term memory records--in this case, frightening mass media. Evidence for validity emerged in that subjects' scale scores were related to negative emotion, negative cognitions, and skin conductance during film clips of scary movies. (NKA)

Metanalysis of 27 studies dealing with psychology students and the Graduate Record Examinations' (GRE) validity in predicting graduate school success was conducted. Overall, results do not indicate that the verbal and advanced psychology portions are valid predictors of grades, although the quantitative section predicts grades in quantitative…

Using data from a study with a prospective-cohorts design, accuracy of adult recollection was assessed for 1,574 young adults for whom information from the past 20 years was available. Results indicate good discriminant validity and predictive efficiency of the two self-report measures used. (SLD)

Reviews problems involved in analyzing data on educational or training needs and details use of the proportionate reduction in error (PRE) approach (Hildebrand, et al., 1977), which predicts the probability that certain combinations of a joint distribution will occur, then tests to see how closely the prediction matches the observation. (MBR)

Presents a comprehensive review of validity that includes an empirical evaluation of the actual and potential consequences of score interpretation and use, how those consequences come about, and what determines them. Six distinguishable aspects of construct validity are highlighted as a means of addressing central issues implicit in the notion of…

Item response theory (IRT) is used to develop a form of adjusted cumulative grade point average (GPA) for use in predicting college academic performance appropriately for males and females. For 1,564 students at Stanford University (California), the IRT-based GPA was more predictable from preadmission measures than the cumulative GPA. (SLD)

A study followed 66 medical students from matriculation through clerkship to determine the use of an anxiety measure, undergraduate grades, and Medical College Admission Test scores in predicting clerkship performance. Results showed disparities in prediction but suggest that the way students are evaluated in clerkships determined which factors…

Criticism of the use of standardized tests in postsecondary education centers on: using test scores as the sole or main criterion for admission; scoring practices used for normative or grading functions rather than for diagnosis; and tracking students into different types of postsecondary institutions. (MH)