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Direct linkKoriat, Asher; Fiedler, Klaus; Bjork, Robert A. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2006
The authors report 7 experiments indicating that conditional predictions--the assessed probability that a certain outcome will occur given a certain condition--tend to be markedly inflated. The results suggest that this inflation derives in part from backward activation in which the target outcome highlights aspects of the condition that are…
Descriptors: Probability, Prediction, Experimental Psychology
