Terence Mills introduces us to Keynsian probability and discusses its implications for teaching probability. The author considers it unlikely that Keynes's theory would replace how we teach probability, but argues that it may make us think more deeply about the use of terms such as chance and probability when used in our lessons.

Over the past ten years, propensity score methods have made an important contribution to improving generalizations from studies that do not select samples randomly from a population of inference. However, these methods require assumptions and recent work has considered the role of bounding approaches that provide a range of treatment impact…

This study explores the usefulness of covariates on equating test scores from nonequivalent test groups. The covariates are captured by an estimated propensity score, which is used as a proxy for latent ability to balance the test groups. The objective is to assess the sensitivity of the equated scores to various misspecifications in the…

An interval estimation procedure is discussed that can be used to evaluate the probability of a particular response for a binary or binary scored item at a pre-specified point along an underlying latent continuum. The item is assumed to: (a) be part of a unidimensional multi-component measuring instrument that may contain also polytomous items,…

The internal validity of observational study is often subject to debate. In this study, we define the counterfactuals as the unobserved sample and intend to quantify its relationship with the null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST). We propose the probability of a robust inference for internal validity, that is, the PIV, as a robustness index…

In this article Danielle Marie Greene-Bell and Francis A. Pearman II examine racial disparities in school closures across the United States, with a particular interest in majority Black schools. Using survival analysis and longitudinal data, they find that majority Black schools are far more likely to close than non-majority Black schools and that…

Individuals draw conclusions about possibilities from assertions that make no explicit reference to them. The model theory postulates that assertions such as disjunctions refer to possibilities. Hence, a disjunction of the sort, "A or B or both," where "A" and "B" are sensible clauses, yields mental models of an…

The purpose of this research is to construct a preliminary genetic decomposition delineating the mental constructions underlying probabilistic independence. This delineation is considered within the framework of APOS theory. While the use of the term independence in probability is often conflated with causation, the definition relies instead upon…

Hinterecker, Knauff, and Johnson-Laird (2016) compared the adequacy of the probabilistic new paradigm in reasoning with the recent revision of mental models theory (MMT) for explaining a novel class of inferences containing the modal term "possibly." For example, "the door is closed or the window is open or both," therefore,…

This paper explores the use of irony in narratives that focus on the problem of knowing what we do not know. Sometimes issues arise on a grand scale, as in the literature of Socrates, Pascal, and Descartes, where the question really is whether we can know anything at all or whether all that we can know is that there is nothing worth knowing that…

An Angoff standard setting study generally yields judgments on a number of items by a number of judges (who may or may not be nested in panels). Variability associated with judges (and possibly panels) contributes error to the resulting cut score. The variability associated with items plays a more complicated role. To the extent that the mean item…

Some IRT models can be equivalently modeled in alternative frameworks such as logistic regression. Logistic regression can also model time-to-event data, which concerns the probability of an event occurring over time. Using the relation between time-to-event models and logistic regression and the relation between logistic regression and IRT, this…

In item response theory (IRT) modeling, the Fisher information matrix is used for numerous inferential procedures such as estimating parameter standard errors, constructing test statistics, and facilitating test scoring. In principal, these procedures may be carried out using either the expected information or the observed information. However, in…

This paper deals with a brief history of probability theory and its applications to Jacob Bernoulli's famous law of large numbers and theory of errors in observations or measurements. Included are the major contributions of Jacob Bernoulli and Laplace. It is written to pay the tricentennial tribute to Jacob Bernoulli, since the year 2013…

This paper discusses investigations in science education addressing the nonlinear dynamical hypothesis. Learning science is a suitable field for applying interdisciplinary research and predominately for testing psychological theories. It was demonstrated that in this area the paradigm of complexity and nonlinear dynamics have offered theoretical…