Suppose "X" and "Y" are binary exposure and outcome variables, and we have full knowledge of the distribution of "Y," given application of "X." We are interested in assessing whether an outcome in some case is due to the exposure. This "probability of causation" is of interest in comparative…

This article describes a simple two-player game which illustrates basic concepts of brinkmanship, to include calculations of probability and expected outcomes, and risk-taking profiles. The game befits a single 50-minute class period with introduction, gameplay, and discussion. The game can supplement the study of conflict from classic Cold War…

Administrative problems such as computer malfunction and power outage occasionally lead to missing item scores and hence to incomplete data on mastery tests such as the AP and U.S. Medical Licensing examinations. Investigators are often interested in estimating the probabilities of passing of the examinees with incomplete data on mastery tests.…

In a signal detection theory (SDT) approach to multiple choice exams, examinees are viewed as choosing, for each item, the alternative that is perceived as being the most plausible, with perceived plausibility depending in part on whether or not an item is known. The SDT model is a process model and provides measures of item difficulty, item…

In this digital ITEMS module, Dr. Roy Levy describes Bayesian approaches to psychometric modeling. He discusses how Bayesian inference is a mechanism for reasoning in a probability-modeling framework and is well-suited to core problems in educational measurement: reasoning from student performances on an assessment to make inferences about their…

The Maxwell distribution of speeds, f(v), is the starting point for the calculation of the transport coefficients in kinetic-molecular theory. Most physical chemistry textbooks follow a path to derive f(v) similar to that used by Maxwell, which makes it difficult for students to understand its relationship with the equilibrium state of the system,…

Subscore reporting under item response theory models has always been a challenge partly because the test length of each subdomain is limited for precisely locating individuals on multiple continua. Diagnostic classification models (DCMs), providing a pass/fail decision and associated probability of pass on each subdomain, are promising…

We present an instructional approach to teaching causal inference using Bayesian networks and "do"-Calculus, which requires less prerequisite knowledge of statistics than existing approaches and can be consistently implemented in beginner to advanced levels courses. Moreover, this approach aims to address the central question in causal…

W scores are used in a number of commercially available tests. Due to their complex nature, it can be hard for applied researchers and practitioners to understand them or even acquire information about them beyond what is provided in technical manuals. In this article, we provide information regarding the background and derivation of W scores that…

This literature-based, classroom-tested novel innovation of educational song (with pedagogical scaffolding) may help engage students explore and address common resistant misconceptions in probability (e.g. all outcomes are equally likely) and in statistics (e.g. correlation must imply either causation or coincidence).

Although the root-mean squared deviation (RMSD) is a popular statistical measure for evaluating country-specific item-level misfit (i.e., differential item functioning [DIF]) in international large-scale assessment, this paper shows that its sensitivity to detect misfit may depend strongly on the proficiency distribution of the considered…

As an assessment method based on a constructivist approach, peer assessment has become popular in recent years. However, in peer assessment, a problem remains that reliability depends on the rater characteristics. For this reason, some item response models that incorporate rater parameters have been proposed. Those models are expected to improve…

There exists considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions about probability; less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. Grounded in an analysis of the literature, this article offers a lesson sequence for developing students' probabilistic understanding. In particular, a…

In this paper, we derive the result of the classical gambler's ruin problem using elementary linear algebra. Moreover, the pedagogical advantage of the derivation is briefly discussed.

Finite Mathematics has become an enormously rich and productive area of contemporary mathematical biology. Fortunately, educators have developed educational modules based upon many of the models that have used Finite Mathematics in mathematical biology research. A sufficient variety of computer modules that employ graph theory (phylogenetic trees,…