Many claim that a college degree is worth a million dollars, but like so many other "facts" about higher education in the United States, it is not quite right. Indeed, using a set of reasonable assumptions that factors in school selectivity, the cost of a college education, and foregone wages, I show that the million dollar figure is grossly inflated, and may be three times too high. Key points in this "Outlook" include: (1) Many claim that college graduates earn a million dollars more in a lifetime than high school graduates; (2) In fact, there is great variation in the lifetime earnings of students graduating from different types of colleges or universities; and (3) Once we account for tuition payments and discount earnings streams, the payoff of a college degree falls dramatically, but the return is still substantial. (Contains 16 notes and 2 figures.)