Externalizing behavior and low academic performance present key developmental challenges for school-age children, with the potential for these domains to predict each other over time, leading to worsened outcomes. Yet, previous studies have yielded inconsistent conclusions about the directional pathways between externalizing behaviors and academic performance. Moreover, the moderating factors influencing these predictive pathways remain unclear. To clarify these relations, The current study conducted a meta-analysis on the longitudinal predictive relation between externalizing behaviors and academic performance, incorporating data from 124,695 students without clinically diagnosed behavioral problems or learning disabilities across 70 independent studies. The results revealed a bidirectional predictive relation between externalizing behaviors and academic performance, with comparable effect sizes for both the externalizing behavior to academic performance pathway (r = -0.082, p < 0.001) and the reverse pathway (r = -0.076, p < 0.001). Moderation analysis revealed that inattention-related behavior, shorter time intervals, and fewer white participants strengthen the predictive effect of externalizing behaviors on academic performance. In particular, as child age increases, the moderating effect of time interval is even stronger. For the academic performance leading to externalizing behavior pathway, inattention-related behavior, teacher-reported externalizing behavior, literacy-related performance, and GPA/grades were identified as factors contributing to an augmentation in the longitudinal predictive effect of academic performance on externalizing behaviors. Overall, the negative cycle between externalizing behavior and academic performance may be influenced by various factors, providing targeted recommendations for intervention and prevention.