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A Recipe for Disappointment: Policy, Effect Size, and the Winner's Curse
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Simpson, Adrian – Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 2023
Evidence-based education aims to support policy makers choosing between potential interventions. This rarely involves considering each in isolation; instead, sets of evidence regarding many potential policy interventions are considered. Filtering a set on any quantity measured with error risks the "winner's curse": conditional on…
Descriptors: Effect Size, Educational Research, Evidence Based Practice, Foreign Countries