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Direct linkJenny, Mirjam A.; Rieskamp, Jörg; Nilsson, Håkan – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2014
Judging whether multiple events will co-occur is an important aspect of everyday decision making. The underlying probabilities of occurrence are usually unknown and have to be inferred from experience. Using a rigorous, quantitative model comparison, we investigate how people judge the conjunctive probabilities of multiple events to co-occur. In 2…
Descriptors: Experimental Psychology, Decision Making, Probability, Models
Herzog, Stefan M.; Hertwig, Ralph – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2014
Individuals can partly recreate the "wisdom of crowds" within their own minds by combining nonredundant estimates they themselves have generated. Herzog and Hertwig (2009) showed that this accuracy gain could be boosted by urging people to actively think differently when generating a 2nd estimate ("dialectical bootstrapping").…
Descriptors: Sampling, Statistical Inference, Experimental Psychology, Hypothesis Testing
