Early assessment grades are recorded and distributed each semester to selected students at Muskingum College. The assumption is that students will take adverse signals and respond positively, leading to fewer academic difficulties and higher retention. This paper examines the validity of such assumptions by considering the probability that an early assessment grade will go up, down or stay the same when final grades are issued. Statistical tests suggest the final grade distribution is significantly different from the early assessment distribution, with a tendency for final grades to be higher than early assessment grades. (Contains 3 tables and 1 footnote.)