A longitudinal analysis of students who entered New York City high schools in 1979 supports the perception that most future dropouts can be identified at the beginning of their high school careers. This study examined the records of more than a quarter of the 1979 entering class at New York City high schools. Analyses were performed on attendance, credits earned, course failures, and course grades in the fall of 1979. These measures were then compared to the students' final outcome in the school: graduation, discharge as dropout, transfer to another school, discharge to a setting outside the school system. In the fall of 1979, 24 percent of the new high school students were absent for 16 or more days, and 39 percent of the students had failing averages. While many of these initial high risk students went on to graduate, a close connection between early academic failure and eventual dropping out was observed. Fewer than 10 percent of the dropouts studied began their high school careers with averages of 75 percent or higher. These data are a powerful endorsement of a holding power strategy focused on grades 8 and 9. (The major portion of this report consists of statistical tables showing study results). (KH)