This research examined the extent to which benchmark assessments can be accurate forecasters of student performance on a state assessment in Algebra 1. The study applied correlational analysis, regression analysis, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis to the benchmark and state assessment results of a rural school district in Maryland. Data representing 472 students in grades eight through ten were analyzed to determine if benchmark scores were accurate predictors of state assessment scores, to determine if proximity to the state assessment affects the predictive ability of the benchmark, and to illustrate a method which could be used to optimize the combined sensitivity and specificity of a benchmark. The findings from this investigation revealed moderate to strong relationships between benchmark scores and state assessment scores. Cross validation of the prediction models confirmed that there was no significant difference between the predicted state assessment scores and the actual scores. Analysis of correlation coefficients indicated that the predictive ability of benchmark scores did not improve during the school year. ROC analysis helped identify benchmark cut-off scores which optimized the combined sensitivity and specificity of each benchmark. This research showed that benchmark assessments in Algebra 1 can be accurate predictors of future performance on state assessments in mathematics and that the time of year a benchmark is given does not influence the predictive ability of the benchmark. Further, ROC analysis is a viable method for establishing cut-off scores that predict how a student is likely to perform in the future. [The dissertation citations contained here are published with the permission of ProQuest LLC. Further reproduction is prohibited without permission. Copies of dissertations may be obtained by Telephone (800) 1-800-521-0600. Web page: http://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2222/en-US/products/dissertations/individuals.shtml.]