During the past decade, quantitative researchers have examined the first-year university experience from both variable-centred and person-centred perspectives. These studies have, however, generally been cross-sectional and therefore often failed to address how student learning changes during this transition. Furthermore, research has been undertaken chiefly with Western students, creating a significant gap considering the fact that students from a Confucian cultural heritage are a significant portion of the international higher education population. The present study seeks to address these weaknesses in the existing literature by employing a longitudinal person-centred approach to understanding the latent subgroups within a first-year student population at one Japanese university. Survey and achievement data from students (n = 920) attending one private university in western Japan at the beginning and end of their first academic year were analysed. Latent profile transition analysis (LPTA) identified three latent groups at time 1 and at time 2. LPTA mover-stayer modelling highlighted a pattern of students moving towards less adaptive groups over time. In particular, the least adaptive group increased in size, and no students from the low group managed to transition to the highest group during the course of their first year at a university.