Changes in the demand for higher education in postwar Japan are analyzed. Three simple conceptual models of the anticipated benefit of education are considered, along with the validity of each model in explaining changes in aggregate demand for college. A classical model assumes that individuals know about the prevailing wage structure and expect it to stay unchanged. A perception bias (lag) model posits that individuals anticipate the benefit of education according to wage structure perceptions, which are biased or lagged images of the present and past structure. The shift expectation model integrates the factor of expectation of future shift in wage structure. To test the validity of each model, alternative sets of time-series indices of anticipated benefit of higher education were estimated from wage structure statistics. A theoretical model of individual choice about education was also developed, and the aggregate demand function of education was derived. Shift expectation was found to be a significant factor in the formation of anticipated benefit of education, and thus in determining the changes in the demand for education. The effect of an economic cycle on educational demand is also considered, with attention to changing family income, changing wage structure, and the formation of future growth expectations. (SW)