ERIC Number: ED663344
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2024-Sep-19
Pages: N/A
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Supporting the Educational Attainment of English Learners in High School: Early Warning Indicators
Marisa de la Torre; Elaine Allensworth; Kaitlyn Franklin
Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness
Background/Context: English learners (ELs) have the potential to bring much-needed multilingual skills to the workforce, and most ELs aspire to graduate high school and earn a post-secondary credential (Gwynne, Pareja, Ehrlich, & Allensworth, 2012; Shi & Watkinson, 2019). But active ELs graduate high school at far lower rates than their English-proficient peers (U.S. Department of Education [USDOE], n.d.a), and their college enrollment and degree attainment rates are much lower than native-English speakers (Kanno & Cromley, 2013). Many schools use Early Warning Indicator Systems to identify students who are at risk of not graduating from high school, and College Readiness Indicator Systems to identify whether students are meeting important criteria to be likely to eventually obtain a college degree (see review in Balfanz & Byrnes, 2019). These indicator systems often focus on students' grades, attendance, and behavior (Allensworth & Easton, 2005, 2007; Balfanz & Byrnes 2006). When considering ELs, there may be additional indicators of academic performance that matter for educational attainment (for example, English proficiency at the beginning of high school). In addition, ELs in high school are a diverse group of students and supporting their educational attainment might require a different set of indicators for each group. Purpose/Objective/Research Question: This study examines a broad array of potential indicators of educational achievement in high school to identify what matters most for educational attainment for different groups of ELs. We include indicators of achievement used in indicator systems for all students, as well as indicators that are specific to ELs, asking: RQ1: How are high school indicators of the academic performance of different subgroups of EL students in grades nine to twelve related to their later educational attainment (high school graduation, immediate college enrollment, college degree attainment)? RQ2: Given the relationships of academic performance with educational attainment, what are the largest barriers for each of the subgroups of ELs, and what are their strengths? Our focus is on former ELs (students who demonstrated English proficiency before high school), long-term ELs without IEPs, long-term ELs with IEPs, and late-arriving (newcomer) ELs. This can help point school practitioners to the indicators that are most critical in supporting all ELs. Setting and data: The data used for this study consist of cohorts of students who started ninth grade for the first time in the fall of 2008 through 2017 in district-run schools in Chicago Public Schools. These students would have graduated high school in the spring of 2012 through 2021, if they graduated in four years, and potentially enrolled in college in fall 2012 through 2021. Data Analysis: To test which variables are the best predictors of educational attainment, we use logistic regression models predicting each educational attainment outcome (e.g., high school graduation, college enrollment, college degree attainment) for each subgroup. The models contain an increasing number of variables, and we compare the pseudo-R-squared to determine which variables have the most explanatory power by themselves, and then in combination with other predictors, to see whether a new variable improves prediction of the outcome beyond those already in the model, and what combinations are best. We also conduct a number of confirmatory analyses using different methods. Findings/Results: The educational attainment outcomes show similar relationships with high school academic indicators for all groups of ELs, except for long-term ELs with IEPs. Across all three attainment outcomes, students' GPAs tend to be the most strongly predictive, with attendance rates also strongly predictive of graduation, and test scores sometimes adding more information for college outcomes. English proficiency levels and growth on the ACCESS are not strongly predictive of educational attainment for any EL group. GPAs and attendance are also the strongest predictors for never-EL students, but ELs need to show higher achievement to have similar probabilities of graduating high school or college as never-ELs. There are some differences across the EL groups in the relationships of achievement indicators with educational attainment. For long-term ELs with IEPs, grades and attendance are less predictive than for other groups, so the combination of all ninth-grade indicators provides a much better prediction than any two alone. For other groups, two indicators tend to provide similar prediction accuracy as models with all of the potential indicators. Another difference is when the indicators become particularly predictive; the ninth-grade year is a critical year for all groups, but for late-arriving ELs, indicators become noticeably more predictive in tenth grade. This suggests a need for longer-term supports around the transition to high school for late- arriving students. Many ELs and former ELs have strong high school achievement, with former ELs and late- arriving ELs showing stronger high school performance on many indicators than students who were never-EL. However, long-term ELs need much more support in passing their classes in high school--high course failure rates are the largest barrier to educational attainment. This is especially urgent for long-term ELs without IEPs. Conclusions: Work to improve attendance and grades would have the most leverage for improving educational attainment rates for ELs and never-ELs, suggesting indicator systems can be simple and similar for all students. At the same time, ELs face additional barriers beyond other students, so the thresholds for having good probabilities of educational attainment outcomes are different, and there is a need for additional supports for college attainment beyond academic ones. English proficiency may seem like the priority for supporting ELs' educational attainment, but improving grades and attendance is actually more critical. There is a need for further research to understand why attendance and grades are less predictive for students with IEPs, and to understand how school and classroom environment factors lead many long-term ELs to disengage from school.
Descriptors: English Language Learners, High School Students, At Risk Students, Student Characteristics, Educational Attainment, Predictor Variables, High School Graduates, College Enrollment, College Graduates, Grade Point Average, Attendance, Tests, Scores, Language Proficiency, Students with Disabilities
Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness. 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208. Tel: 202-495-0920; e-mail: contact@sree.org; Web site: https://www.sree.org/
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: High Schools; Secondary Education; Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness (SREE)
Identifiers - Location: Illinois (Chicago)
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A