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ERIC Number: EJ1417572
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2024
Pages: 25
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0013-1954
EISSN: EISSN-1573-0816
Available Date: N/A
Covariational Reasoning in Bayesian Situations
Educational Studies in Mathematics, v115 n3 p481-505 2024
Previous studies on Bayesian situations, in which probabilistic information is used to update the probability of a hypothesis, have often focused on the calculation of a posterior probability. We argue that for an in-depth understanding of Bayesian situations, it is (apart from mere calculation) also necessary to be able to evaluate the effect of "changes of parameters" in the Bayesian situation and the consequences, e.g., for the posterior probability. Thus, by understanding Bayes' formula as a function, the concept of covariation is introduced as an extension of conventional Bayesian reasoning, and covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations is studied. Prospective teachers (N=173) for primary (N=112) and secondary (N=61) school from two German universities participated in the study and reasoned about covariation in Bayesian situations. In a mixed-methods approach, firstly, the elaborateness of prospective teachers' covariational reasoning is assessed by analysing the arguments qualitatively, using an adaption of the Structure of Observed Learning Outcome (SOLO) taxonomy. Secondly, the influence of possibly supportive variables on covariational reasoning is analysed quantitatively by checking whether (i) the changed parameter in the Bayesian situation (false-positive rate, true-positive rate or base rate), (ii) the visualisation depicting the Bayesian situation (double-tree vs. unit square) or (iii) the calculation (correct or incorrect) influences the SOLO level. The results show that among these three variables, only the changed parameter seems to influence the covariational reasoning. Implications are discussed.
Springer. Available from: Springer Nature. One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, NY 10004. Tel: 800-777-4643; Tel: 212-460-1500; Fax: 212-460-1700; e-mail: customerservice@springernature.com; Web site: https://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2123/
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Elementary Education; Secondary Education; Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Germany
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A