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Direct linkKareev, Yaakov; Fiedler, Klaus; Avrahami, Judith – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2009
A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize…
Descriptors: Prediction, Cues, Experimental Psychology, Behavior
