This report evaluates current health manpower shortage area (HMSA) designation criteria against defined standards and program objectives, assesses possible alternatives and improvements to those criteria, and examines possible approaches to, and feasibility, of measuring demand and predicting the likelihood that unmet demand in an area will be met within 2 years. HMSA's are defined by federal legislation to include urban and rural geographic areas, population groups, and facilities with shortages of health manpower. The report is organized into three major parts. Part 1 provides essential background information on HMSA criteria and designation process. Part 2 presents results of the detailed technical analysis undertaken. Part 3 presents major conclusions and provides a series of recommendations, both for specific improvements in the HMSA criteria and for further research. The most important conclusion emerging from the findings is that the HMSA criteria performed best of the various alternatives in terms of measuring the basic shortage concept they were designed to measure--the density of physicians in an area. (Provided in appendices are detailed tables and other exhibits relevant to analyses presented in the body of the report.) (BC)