Freshmen enrollment for the fall of 1981 was projected, and the impact of student assistance cuts in the Pell Grant and Guaranteed Student Loan (GSL) programs was assessed. The National Institute of Independent Colleges and Universities (NIICU) surveyed college and university admissions officers on the number of paid deposits on June 15, 1980, and June 15, 1981, and the freshman total headcount for fall 1980. Responses from 581 institutions were tabulated nationally and regionally from doctorate-granting institutions, comprehensive universities and colleges, liberal arts colleges, two-year colleges, professional schools, and other specialized institutions. The NIICU findings suggest that though applications are up, the uncertainty of federal student assistance has led entering freshmen to apply to more colleges or to put off making a decision to enroll at college in 1981. The projected decline in freshman enrollments is higher in the northeast and mid-Atlantic states. Enrollment is projected to increase in the north central and southern regions. Overall, colleges and universities in the northwest, the mid-Atlantic, and the west appear to be maintaining enrollments through returning students. Regional differences in the financing of higher education may pose a problem in the future. Projection of the impact of recent federal budget cuts in the Pell Grant and GSL programs was based on a subsample of 100,000 student records in the NIICU survey. Findings show that 32 percent of the more than 550,000 dependent undergraduates currently participating in the Pell Grant program during 1980-81 will no longer be eligible for this program by the 1985-86 academic year. Furthermore, of those students who are planning to enroll in college during the next five years, 32 percent of those who are currently eligible in 1980-81 will no longer be in 1985-86. Reductions in Pell Grants and GSL programs are calculated through 1985-86, and unmet student needs are predicted to increase by 73 percent in actual dollars, leaving the question of how higher education will be financed. (CC)