No matter how well intentioned the Goals 2000: Educate America Act may be, it is doomed to failure. The theory of the logic and behavior of the educational system illustrates how powerful systemic forces converge to stabilize the high school attainment rate at about 75%, where it has been since 1965, and where no traditional national policy will be able to advance it very much. If education policy could increase the rate to 90% or beyond, undesirable consequences of potentially great magnitude, especially for targeted minority groups, would result. Economic disaster would result for those who could not complete or chose not to complete high school. Social benefits would also be reduced for those who did complete high school, and the diploma would lose its power to secure social goods. Part 2 of this paper outlines a theory of the logic and behavior of educational systems, and Part 3 presents a noncausal aggregate model that illustrates system dynamics. Part 4 presents an individual probabilistic model to extend the aggregate model, and Part 5 analyzes the two models and discusses policy alternatives. Part 6 analyzes two models from Raymond Moudon that support the results reported. Appendixes present mathematics behind the models and an educational attainment table. (Contains 12 figures, 6 tables, and 14 references.) (SLD)