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ERIC Number: EJ1362378
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2022
Pages: 6
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1066-8926
EISSN: EISSN-1521-0413
Predicting Enrollment with Stacked Models: Bringing Together Theory and Empirics
Atcha, Haroon
Community College Journal of Research and Practice, v46 n9 p686-691 2022
Proper institutional planning requires accurate enrollment forecasts. This is especially true in the community college context given open enrollment policies and reliance on public funds. Despite the importance of this task, enrollment forecasts are relatively disconnected from theoretical advances in the study of retention and enrollment. In this paper we argue that, in the interest of predictive accuracy, our statistical models ought to be theoretically informed. We show how incorporating theoretical knowledge by building 'stacked' models, which model theoretically distinct sub-populations separately, is a fruitful avenue for improving forecast accuracy. We demonstrate this by comparing the predictive accuracy of stacked models to approaches commonly found in the literature on simulated datasets.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education; Two Year Colleges
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A