This paper contributes to the discourse in stochastic education of how young students deal with learning settings that allow a data-based approach to probability. By using the micro-structure of arguments by Toulmin (1958), it explores which arguments students use and which role they play in the learning process. The data stems from design…

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, "TinkerPlots." Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of…