In Sweden, compulsory school grades determine admission to upper-secondary school. The article maps grading outcomes in compulsory school for 1990-2017, when three different grading scales were used, in terms of students' distribution across grading steps. Statistics of grades for all Swedish grade 9 students (all school subjects) are used. Contrary to policymakers' expectations, the results show that a large proportion of students failed to pass compulsory school immediately after a criterion-referenced system with a sharp pass/fail distinction was introduced in the late 1990s. The failure rate has since then remained strikingly constant. Swedish as a second language differs from the main pattern, with a substantially higher failure rate that is increasing over time. This outcome is discussed with reference to grading policy as a matter of social choice.