ERIC Number: ED625940
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2023-Jan
Pages: 30
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Human versus Machine: Do College Advisors Outperform a Machine-Learning Algorithm in Predicting Student Enrollment? EdWorkingPaper No. 23-699
Akmanchi, Suchitra; Bird, Kelli A.; Castleman, Benjamin L.
Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
Prediction algorithms are used across public policy domains to aid in the identification of at-risk individuals and guide service provision or resource allocation. While growing research has investigated concerns of algorithmic bias, much less research has compared algorithmically-driven targeting to the counterfactual: human prediction. We compare algorithmic and human predictions in the context of a national college advising program, focusing in particular on predicting high-achieving, lower-income students' college enrollment quality. College advisors slightly outperform a prediction algorithm; however, greater advisor accuracy is concentrated among students with whom advisors had more interactions. The algorithm achieved similar accuracy among students lower in the distribution of interactions, despite advisors having substantially more information. We find no evidence that the advisors or algorithm exhibit bias against vulnerable populations. Our results suggest that, especially at scale, algorithms have the potential to provide efficient, accurate, and unbiased predictions to target scarce social services and resources.
Descriptors: Academic Advising, Artificial Intelligence, Algorithms, Prediction, High Achievement, Low Income Students, High School Students, College Enrollment
Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: AISR_Info@brown.edu; Web site: http://www.annenberginstitute.org
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Tests/Questionnaires
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education; High Schools; Secondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: Bloomberg Philanthropies; Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: R305B200005