ERIC Number: ED625373
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2022
Pages: 11
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Simulating COVID-19 Transmission from Observed Movement
Yi Zhang; Yudong Tao; Mei-Ling Shyu; Lynn K. Perry; Prem R. Warde; Daniel S. Messinger; Chaoming Song
Grantee Submission, Scientific Reports v12 Article 3044 2022
Current models of COVID-19 transmission predict infection from reported or assumed interactions. Here we leverage high-resolution observations of interaction to simulate infectious processes. Ultra- Wide Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems were employed to track the real-time physical movements and directional orientation of children and their teachers in 4 preschool classes over a total of 34 observations. An agent-based transmission model combined observed interaction patterns (individual distance and orientation) with CDC-published risk guidelines to estimate the transmission impact of an infected patient zero attending class on the proportion of overall infections, the average transmission rate, and the time lag to the appearance of symptomatic individuals. These metrics highlighted the prophylactic role of decreased classroom density and teacher vaccinations. Reduction of classroom density to half capacity was associated with an 18.2% drop in overall infection proportion while teacher vaccination receipt was associated with a 25.3% drop. Simulation results of classroom transmission dynamics may inform public policy in the face of COVID-19 and similar infectious threats.
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Early Childhood Education; Preschool Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF); Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: N/A
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: IBSSL1620294; R324A180203
Data File: URL: https://osf.io/h7ks8/?view_only=5b03a51e79ff4c57b59c2a814d60dbd3
Author Affiliations: N/A