An active area in psychometric research is coordinated task design and statistical analysis built around cognitive models. Compared with classical test theory and item response theory, there is often less information from observed data about the measurement-model parameters. On the other hand, there is more information from the grounding…

In many practical applications of item response theory, the parameters of overlapping subsets of test items are estimated from different samples of examinees. A linking procedure is then employed to place the resulting item parameter estimates onto a common scale. It is standard practice to ignore the uncertainty associated with the linking step…

Probability-based inference in complex networks of interdependent variables is an active topic in statistical research, spurred by such diverse applications as forecasting, pedigree analysis, troubleshooting, and medical diagnosis. This paper concerns the role of Bayesian inference networks for updating student models in intelligent tutoring…

Educational test theory consists of statistical and methodological tools to support inferences about examinees' knowledge, skills, and accomplishments. The evolution of test theory has been shaped by the nature of users' inferences which, until recently, have been framed almost exclusively in terms of trait and behavioral psychology. Progress in…

This article describes a Bayesian framework for estimation in item response models, with two-stage distributions on both item and examinee populations. Strategies for point and interval estimation are discussed, and a general procedure based on the EM algorithm is presented. (Author/LMO)

Developments in cognitive and developmental psychology have broadened the inferences researchers want to make about students' learning and the nature and acquisition of knowledge. The principles of inference that led to standard test theory can support inference in the broader context of the cognitive revolution. (SLD)

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation equations are derived for the structural parameters of the Saltus model, and a computing approximation is suggested based on the EM algorithm. The solution is illustrated with simulated data and an example from the domain of mixed number subtraction. (SLD)

When using item response theory (IRT) models in educational and psychological measurement, it is standard practice to estimate the operating characteristics of test items from examinees' item responses alone. This is the final report of a project that employed Bayesian and empirical Bayesian methods to exploit additional information that is often…

Since its release in 1976, LOGIST has been the most widely used computer program for estimating the parameters of the three-parameter logistic item response model developed by A. Birnbaum. An alternative program, BILOG, developed by R. J. Mislevy and R. D. Bock (1983), has recently become available. This paper compares the approaches taken by the…

Standard procedures for estimating item parameters in item response theory ignore collateral information that may be available about examinees. Circumstances under which collateral information about examinees may be used to make inferences about item parameters more precise and circumstances under which collateral information must be used are…

Standard item response theory (IRT) models posit latent variables to account for regularities in students' performance on test items. They can accommodate learning only if the expected changes in performance are smooth, and, in an appropriate metric, uniform over items. Wilson's "Saltus" model extends the ideas of IRT to development that…

Test theory encompasses models and methods for drawing inferences about what students know and can do, cast in a framework of ideas from measurement, education, and psychology. The emerging paradigm of cognitive psychology prompts new considerations about collecting and interpreting evidence, suggesting alternative models for the nature,…

Educational assessments that exploit advances in technology and cognitive psychology can produce observations and pose student models that outstrip familiar test-theoretic models and analytic methods. Bayesian inference networks (BINs), which include familiar models and techniques as special cases, can be used to manage belief about students'…

A model is presented for item responses when different subjects use different strategies, but only responses--not choice of strategy--can be observed. Substantive theory is used to differentiate the likelihoods of response vectors under a fixed set of strategies, and response probabilities are modeled via item parameters for each strategy. (TJH)

The challenges of modeling students' performance in computer-based interactive assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance. This article describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating cognitive models…