Researchers attempted to predict the defeat of school board incumbents, using variables which had already been shown to account for incumbent defeat in statistical analyses performed after board elections in many different states. A global model was constructed based on 20 social, economic, and political variables as well as on school districts'…

Using data collected in 95 Ohio school districts by Brock Hunt, this study reanalyzed those data, examined the reasons for Hunt's inability to predict a school board member incumbent's defeat, and developed a model that would have predicted those Ohio school board elections. Hunt attempted to develop a statistical model of socioeconomic-political…