Examines responses of 40,435 students from the "Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey" and uses student self-reported school risk behaviors to "predict" recent weapon possession at school. Although school risk behaviors were moderately correlated with school weapon possession, many frequent weapon carriers displayed zero school risks. Argues that school psychologists should consider school violence appraisals within a developmental, long-term model. (Contains 53 references and 2 tables.) (Author/GCP)