The Austin (Texas) Independent School District has been researching the dropout issue for several years and has studied the implementation of the mandated Texas at-risk criteria to identify at-risk students. Having identified students at risk, the district followed them for 4 years (1987-88 to 1990-91) to determine the accuracy of the initial identification. The following types of information were obtained: (1) enrollment status; (2) age; (3) grade; (4) ethnicity; (5) number of Fs; (6) achievement test scores; and (7) dropout rates at several time points. The results show that state mandated criteria identify many students who will not drop out. While over 40 percent of the secondary school students were considered at-risk in each of the 4 years, in a given year about one of eight at-risk students actually dropped out. A small proportion (3.4 to 5.3 percent) of students not identified dropped out each year; one-third of dropouts were not identified by the state criteria. The number-one predictive factor is being older than average for the grade. Of 22 categories of risk, the combination of being overage and failing the Texas Assessment of Minimum Academic Skills, the state exit examination, accounted for the highest percentage of dropouts. The number of overage students earning Fs and falling off-pace for graduation has increased in each of the 4 years, as has the number of dropouts. Statistical data are provided in 16 figures and 2 tables in 2 attachments. Eight references are listed. (SLD)