Using the state-mandated Texas at-risk criteria to identify students at-risk for dropping out, the Austin (Texas) Independent School District (AISD) followed those students for three years to determine the accuracy of the mandated state criteria. The study focuses on the classification and follow-up of 25,587 students in 1987-88, 25,292 students in 1988-98, and 25,998 students in 1989-90 in grades 7 through 12. Enrollment status, age, grade, ethnicity, number of "F"s, achievements test scores, and dropout rates at several times are obtained from the computer files maintained by the AISD. Results identify 41% to 46% of the enrollment as at-risk, with high school, Black, or Hispanic American males being the most frequently found. The three-year follow-up on the 1987-88 group found that of the original at-risk students in grades 9 through 12, 33% had graduated, 33% were still enrolled, and less than 33% had dropped out. Of the students in grades 7 through 8, slightly more than 33% were still enrolled, more than 33% had transferred, and fewer than 33% had dropped out. The study shows that the state criteria over-identify at-risk students. In addition, other students are dropping out who have not been identified as at-risk. Eight figures and two attachments display the data. Four references are included. (JB)