Studies of the psychology of hindsight have shown that reporting the outcome of a historical event increases the perceived likelihood of that outcome. Three experiments show that similar hindsight effects occur when people evaluate the predictability of scientific results. Implications for the evaluation of scientific research by lay observers are…

How often are people wrong when they are certain that they know the answer to a question? The studies reported here suggest that the answer is "too often". The psychological bases for unwarranted certainty are discussed in terms of the inferential processes whereby knowledge is constructed from perceptions and memories. (Editor/RK)

The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in…