Current research places an emphasis on outcomes, rather than the processes, that lead to disproportionality in special education. In most instances, referrals for special education are based on teacher perception, rather than data. Using a norm-referenced self-report instrument to assess behavioral and emotional risk, this study compared those identified as at-risk by the instrument to those presently receiving special education services within a nationally representative sample of 4946 children. The results indicated demographics including gender, race, and socioeconomic status were more predictive of special education status than self-report of risk. These findings suggest that a data-driven approach to inform referral for special education may contribute to efforts to reduce the disproportionate placement of students of color and males in special education.