Knowledge of major economic forces shaping the future of rural America provides insights about the likely importance and effectiveness of various broad program alternatives as components of a rural development policy. The rural economic base was transformed during the 1960s and 1970s from a primary dependence on natural resource activities, including agriculture, to a dependence on manufacturing and services. This dependence has been the principal cause of economic stress in rural America in the 1980s. In conjunction with higher unemployment in rural goods-producing industries, nonmetropolitan population growth has receded to a level below that of metropolitan areas. Given the nature of rural economic stress, public policy discussion about rural development needs to be conditioned by three considerations. Because the rural economy is now an integral part of the national/global economy, traditional sector-specific/community-specific policies are less able to deal with problems. Since rural areas are diverse, careful targeting of limited rural economic development funds is essential. And, because the burden of economic adjustments falls on displaced workers, human resource policies are critical to successful amelioration of current rural economic stress. Social scientists have the difficult task of trying to develop effective rural development policies based on efficiency and equity. (NEC)