Finds that the subjective probability model continues to provide some degree of prediction for beliefs (of an individual for circumstances of a single event with multiple causes) prior to the exposure to a message, but that after exposure to a persuasive message, the model did not maintain the same level of accuracy of prediction. Offers several…

Explores the worth of high impact/low probability arguments as "real world" policy arguments. Evaluates four National Debate Tournament (NDT) final round disadvantages by students using the subjective probability model. Finds that although NDT disadvantages were perceived to be a technically sound form of argumentation, they were not…

Demonstrates that people examine an argument and determine whether to assent based on the quality of the justification provided. Shows that these justifications do not reside in the structure of the argument but in the content of the argument and the interaction of the content with the belief system of the message receiver. (SR)