Education systems are increasingly creating rich, longitudinal data sets with frequent, and even real-time, data updates of many student measures, including daily attendance, homework submissions, and exam scores. These data sets provide an opportunity for district and school staff members to move beyond an indicators-based approach and instead…

The set of statistical methods available to developmentalists is continually being expanded, allowing for questions about change over time to be addressed in new, informative ways. Indeed, new developments in methods to model change over time create the possibility for new research questions to be posed. Latent transition analysis, a longitudinal…

Some researchers have argued that discrepant broad index scores invalidate IQs, but others have questioned the fundamental logic of that argument. To resolve this debate, the present study used a nationally representative sample of children (N = 1,200) who were matched individually for IQ. Children with significantly uneven broad index score…

Proposes a probabilistic mechanism to describe various forms of the Bradford phenomenon reported in bibliographic research. The inclusion of a time parameter in the model to allow predictions of dynamic systems is explained. (58 references) (CLB)

Argues that library book circulation is a binomial rather than a Poisson process, and that individual book popularities are continuous beta distributions. Three examples demonstrate the superiority of beta over negative binomial distribution, and it is suggested that a bivariate-binomial process would be helpful in predicting future book…

This paper encourages the use of multiple logistic analysis in early intervention research, to assess the degree of association of multiple factors (such as subject or situational characteristics) with a dichotomous outcome (such as benefitting or not benefitting from an intervention) and to estimate the probability of each outcome. (JDD)

This paper's goal is to redefine fiscal health by broadening its predictive function and to determine which fiscal indicators are useful for forecasting fiscal health for one, two, and three years. Results indicate that school district fiscal health forecasts are potentially great planning tools for local for local decision makers. Includes 11…

A procedure for smoothing proportions of a double-entry expectancy table is described. The product is a nomograph from which can be read expectancies from combinations of values of two predictor variables. Use of the procedure in admission of first-year college students, based on students' high school class rank and standardized test composite…

A quantitative method developed at Stanford University that addresses programmatically the short- and long-term needs of the college physical plant is discussed. The approach allows the administrator to accurately assess funding resources for the maintenance program in conjunction with academic and construction programs. A special task force at…

Examples of the use of a mathematical model to evaluate the future renewal and replacement, or maintenance requirements, of the college physical plant are provided. The model, which was developed at Stanford University, simulates actual conditions at a specific location and allows resource allocation to be based on a definable quantitative base.…

This study explored how logit, probit, and more traditional linear regression techniques compare in predicting college student retention, using data provided by registrars from a national sample of colleges and universities. Results showed little practical difference among the techniques, despite theoretical advantages offered by the first two.…

Circulation time-series data from 50 midwest academic libraries were used to test 110 variants of 8 smoothing forecasting methods. Data and methodologies and illustrations of two recommended methods--the single exponential smoothing method and Brown's one-parameter linear exponential smoothing method--are given. Eight references are cited. (EJS)

The purpose of this study was to examine the nature of the expectancy-performance relationship for each sex and to determine whether cross-sex comparisons are appropriate. Students' expectancies for academic performance and the relationship of the expectancies to actual grades were examined. Subjects were 331 students (168 women and 163 men)…

Revenue forecasting is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective forecasting requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…

Reviews studies done on academic library growth in attempt to clarify three reasons for failure of these analyses to result in usable projections of library size. Highlights include patterns in library growth (hypothetical exponential and arithmetic growth), Fremont Rider's studies of growth, and literature on growth after Rider. (28 references)…